Issue Campaigns

What is the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship?

The U.S. Department of Defense has prioritized strengthening its relationship with Silicon Valley—but is it succeeding, and how would we know? Foretell explores this topic as part of its first Issue Campaign, a research offering where we rely on stakeholder judgment to break complex policy issues down into forecastable questions and then leverage the wisdom of the crowd to forecast those questions.

Read stakeholder perspectives Submit forecasts and see crowd results

Mapping the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship

Through stakeholder interviews, we identified two measures of the state of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship (outcome measures) and seven factors that will shape that relationship. Click on each factor and outcome measure for more details.

Factors                    
Outcome Measures
Legend
 
Positive relationship. Stakeholders expect an increase would improve relationship and decrease would harm it.
 
Divided. Stakeholders are divided on how changes would affect the relationship.
 
Negative relationship. Stakeholders expect an increase would harm relationship and a decrease would improve it.
How are we collecting and synthesizing expert and crowd judgments?
Learn more about our methodology.

Participating stakeholders*

Catherine Aiken, CSET
Anthony Bak, Palantir
Jason Brown, Google; formerly U.S. Air Force, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center
Michael Brown, Defense Innovation Unit
Miles Brundage, OpenAI
Bess Dopkeen, House Committee on Armed Services; formerly Department of Defense
Ed Felten, Princeton
Melissa Flagg, Flagg Consulting and Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center; formerly CSET, Department of Defense
Michael Horowitz, University of Pennsylvania; formerly Department of Defense
Nicholas Joseph, Anthropic
Josh Marcuse, Google; formerly Defense Innovation Board
Igor Mikolic-Torreira, CSET; formerly Department of Defense
Enrique Oti, Second Front Systems; formerly U.S. Air Force, Defense Innovation Unit
Scott Phoenix, Vicarious
Jack Poulson, Tech Inquiry
James Ryseff, RAND; formerly Google, Microsoft
Jack Shanahan, Retired U.S. Air Force, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center
Trae Stephens, Anduril Industries, Founders Fund
Danielle Tarraf, RAND

*Three participating stakeholders requested anonymity.

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