Factor

Strength of U.S. tech sector

Stakeholders are split on the effect of the strength of the U.S. tech sector.
24% think a stronger U.S. tech sector would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.
47% think a weaker U.S. tech sector would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.

Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. On trend (54th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. High

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Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will money raised for private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. Above trend (70th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. Medium

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Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. On trend (60th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. Medium

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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