Factor

Strength of U.S. tech sector

Stakeholders are split on the effect of the strength of the U.S. tech sector. 24% think a stronger U.S. tech sector would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship, while 29% think it would worsen the relationship. All stakeholders who think a stronger U.S. tech sector would improve the relationship are in the improve cohort.

Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of $2.5 trillion by the second quarter of 2024, with a positive correlation (0.5) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast ($2.6 trillion in 2024 Q2) is higher than the same/worse cohort’s average forecast ($2.3 trillion in 2024 Q2). The difference between the cohorts’ forecasts is statistically significant.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is closer to the same/worse cohort, projecting combined annual revenue to increase to $2.3 trillion by the second quarter of 2024.

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Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will money raised for private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of $183 billion by the second quarter of 2024, with a weak positive correlation (0.2) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast ($186 billion in 2024 Q2) is higher than the same/worse cohort’s average forecast ($179 billion in 2024 Q2).
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is higher than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd expects annual money raised to increase to $240 billion by the second quarter of 2024. The crowd’s higher forecast was likely influenced by data for the second quarter of 2021— not available when the stakeholders made their forecasts—which showed a 25 percent increase in annual funding over the previous quarter.

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Strength of U.S. tech sector

Metric:

How will money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of $56 billion by the second quarter of 2024, with a weak positive correlation (0.2) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast ($58 billion in 2024 Q2) is higher than the same/worse cohort’s average forecast ($53.7 billion in 2024 Q2).
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is higher than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd expects annual money raised to increase to $80.6 billion by the second quarter of 2024. The crowd’s higher forecast was likely influenced by data for the second quarter of 2021—not available when the stakeholders made their forecasts— which showed a 29 percent increase in annual funding over the previous quarter.

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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