Factor

U.S. political polarization

65% of stakeholders believe an increase in U.S. political polarization would negatively affect the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.

U.S. political polarization

Metric:

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 51 affective polarization score, with a negative correlation (-0.4) between forecast and overall expectations for the relationship. The same/worse cohort’s average forecast (52 in 2024) is higher than the improve cohort’s average forecast (51 in 2024), indicating a greater expectation of political polarization.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is higher than both cohorts. The crowd expects affective political polarization in the United States will increase to an all-time high of 55 in 2024. The crowd’s forecast indicates an expectation of higher political polarization, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has negative implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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