Factor

U.S. political polarization

71% of stakeholders believe a decrease in U.S. political polarization would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship.

U.S. political polarization

Metric:

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. Above trend (71st prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. High

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U.S. political polarization

Metric:

Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the “Big 5” tech companies against the company’s involvement with DoD in the next four quarters (year)?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. 46%
  • Disagreement. High (STD 30%)

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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