Outcome Measure

Personnel

Personnel

METRIC:

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 3.5 percent in 2023, with a very weak negative correlation (-0.1) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd forecasts that the percentage will reverse its historic decline and remain roughly where it is today (5.3 percent). The crowd’s forecast is higher than the stakeholders’ forecast who expect the historic decline to continue. The crowd’s higher forecast indicates an expectation of greater DOD access to personnel, relative to the stakeholders. According to the stakeholder interviews, this has positive implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.

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Personnel

METRIC:

How will the percentage of Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) computer science graduates whose first job is at a company that has a contract with DoD change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 45 percent in 2023, with a weak positive correlation (0.2) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is similar to the stakeholders’ forecast. The crowd expects the percentage will remain roughly the same as it is today (44.6 percent in 2023). 

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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