Factor

China military aggression

China Military Aggression

Metric:

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. 24%
  • Disagreement. High (STD 22%)

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China Military Aggression

Metric:

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. 16%
  • Disagreement. Medium (STD 14%)

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China Military Aggression

Metric:

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. 9%
  • Disagreement. Low (STD 9%)

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China Military Aggression

Metric:

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. Above trend (66th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. Medium

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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