Factor

China tech capabilities

65% of stakeholders believe an increase in China tech capabilities would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship

China tech capabilities

Metric:

How will the ratio of U.S.-authored to China-authored highly cited AI papers change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation negative.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. Below trend (34th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. Medium

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China tech capabilities

Metric:

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 14/28 NM chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Factor-metric correlation positive.

An increase in this metric indicates an increase in this factor; a decrease in this metric indicates a decrease in this factor.

Stakeholder forecast summary:
  • Aggregate forecast. Above trend (70th prediction interval percentile)
  • Disagreement. Medium

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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