Factor

China tech capabilities

65% of stakeholders believe an increase in China tech capabilities would improve the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship

China tech capabilities

Metric:

How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited AI papers change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 0.98 in 2023, with a weak positive correlation (0.2) between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship. The improve cohort’s average forecast (0.99 in 2023) is slightly higher than same/worse cohort’s average forecast (0.98 in 2023), indicating an expectation of slightly greater China tech capabilities.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is slightly higher than both stakeholder cohorts. The crowd expects the ratio to increase to 1.02 in 2023. The crowd’s higher forecast indicates an expectation of greater China tech capabilities. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has positive implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.


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China tech capabilities

Metric:

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 14/28 NM chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Stakeholder-crowd comparison:
  • Stakeholders' views. Average forecast of 16 percent by the second quarter of 2024, with no correlation between forecasts and overall expectations for the relationship.
  • Crowd's view. The crowd’s forecast is higher than the stakeholders’ average forecast. The crowd expects the percentage to increase to over 20 percent by the second quarter of 2024. The crowd’s higher forecast indicates an expectation of greater China tech capabilities. According to the stakeholder consensus, this has positive implications for the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship.  

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More information on stakeholder and crowd forecasts forthcoming.

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