INFER Public

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2023 07:05PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2023 09:15PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	10%	1%	+9%	-1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	69%	4%	+65%	-12%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	21%	95%	-74%	+14%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2023 01:43AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2023 07:22AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	1%	5%	-4%	-2%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2023 04:02AM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	5%	0%	+5%	-4%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	70%	5%	+65%	-43%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	25%	94%	-69%	+48%
More than or equal to 3000	0%	0%	+0%	-2%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 12:46PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
2023 Q3	2%	0%	+2%	+0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
2024 Q2	2%	1%	+1%	-1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 12:46PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	40%	99%	-59%	+30%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	31%	1%	+30%	-29%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	15%	0%	+15%	-1%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	8%	0%	+8%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	6%	0%	+6%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 12:46PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	94%	-94%	+48%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	5%	5%	+0%	-40%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	84%	0%	+84%	-4%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	11%	0%	+11%	-3%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	-1%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	55%	-55%	-4%
No	100%	45%	+55%	+4%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 31, 2023 08:42PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-4%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+4%

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