BlancaElenaGG

0.305492

Relative Brier Score

15

Forecasts

4

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 6 97 15 392
Comments 0 0 7 1 25
Questions Forecasted 0 6 69 13 142
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 14 4 25
 Definitions
New Prediction

He will be president for another term, amid a high degree of corruption, but he has won a new term.


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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
6% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

The use of cyber attacks is likely to contain the advance of Iran's military development, especially its nuclear program.

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New Badge
BlancaElenaGG
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
Yes
Apr 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
92%
No
Apr 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025

In the current conflict, Israel has not had a sufficient advantage over Hamas, which makes it clear that its military power would not be enough to defeat Hezbollah.

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New Badge
BlancaElenaGG
earned a new badge:

Upvotes Received

New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 29, 2024 09:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2024
97%
No
Feb 29, 2024 to Mar 29, 2024

It is unlikely derived from the escalation of conflict that could take place and that the regional powers do not want to unleash.

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New Prediction
BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No

A state of emergency in Myanmar was declared on February 1, 2021, when the military junta seized power by force. The validity of this exceptional condition, which empowers the Army to take additional control powers in the country, was perpetuated until February 1, 2022, however it was decided to extend the period for six more months (until July 2022), which was followed by another extension with application between August 2022 and February 2023.

In February 2023, an extra-constitutional extension of the state of emergency was announced, which was shaping up to be the last, accompanied by the promise of democratic elections. 

The same thing just happened in recent days. It is unlikely that the Board will reach elections

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