Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2021 02:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 30, 2021 02:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 4% | 7% | -3% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 4% | 23% | -19% | -1% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 20% | 33% | -13% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 27% | 21% | +6% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 45% | 16% | +29% | +3% |
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2021 02:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 30, 2021 02:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 35% | +25% | +2% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 29, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 54% | 3% | +51% | +0% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 0% | 12% | -12% | +0% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 33% | 31% | +2% | +0% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 0% | 40% | -40% | +0% |
| More than 20% | 13% | 14% | -1% | +0% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 29, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 30, 2022 02:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 30, 2022 02:58PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | 58% | 16% | +42% | +0% |
| Samsung | 32% | 53% | -21% | +0% |
| TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 7% | 30% | -23% | +1% |
| Other | 3% | 0% | +3% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2022 02:37AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 30, 2022 02:37AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 66% | 73% | -7% | +4% |
| More than or equal to 7% | 34% | 22% | +12% | -5% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2022 01:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 13, 2022 01:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 40% | 29% | 51% | -22% | -4% |
| More than or equal to 40% but less than 50% | 71% | 38% | +33% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% | 0% | 10% | -10% | +5% |
| More than or equal to 60% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2022 01:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 13, 2022 01:10PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 7% | 0% | 43% | -43% | +3% |
| More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% | 100% | 53% | +47% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 10% | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Dec 30, 2023 08:57PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2023 08:57PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Sep 30, 2023 08:57PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 30, 2023 to Mar 30, 2024 | Dec 30, 2023 | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
As of Dec 30, 2023 05:37AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 05:37AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Nov 30, 2023 05:37AM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024 | Dec 30, 2023 | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 99% | Nov 30, 2023 to May 30, 2024 | Dec 30, 2023 | 97% | +2% | -1% |