Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:07AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 12:07AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 0% | 14% | -14% | -5% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 3% | 8% | -5% | +3% |
Kazakhstan | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:11AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 12:11AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 14% | -13% | -3% |
No | 99% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 86% | +13% | +3% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:13AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 12:13AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 10% | -9% | +1% |
No | 99% | 90% | +9% | -1% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 01, 2024 12:31AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Aug 1, 2024 | 6% | -1% | -2% |
No | 95% | May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Aug 1, 2024 | 94% | +1% | +2% |