INFER Public

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	-2%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+2%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 03, 2024 12:43PM UTC
(4 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	3%	+3%	-3%
No	94%	97%	-3%	+3%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 09:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	76%	80%	-4%	+11%
No	24%	20%	+4%	-11%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 29, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	-4%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+4%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 01:57AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	86%	81%	+5%	+3%
No	14%	19%	-5%	-3%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 01:58AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	4%	-2%	-1%
No	98%	96%	+2%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2024 01:59AM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	4%	8%	-4%	+1%
Su-35 fighter jets	6%	11%	-5%	-1%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	13%	-12%	-7%
No	99%	87%	+12%	+7%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:01AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
No	99%	98%	+1%	-1%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:03AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	12%	-9%	-2%
No	97%	88%	+9%	+2%

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