Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:03PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 5% | 9% | -4% | +2% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 12% | 11% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 4% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 99% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 96% | +3% | -2% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 4% | -3% | +2% |
| No | 99% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 96% | +3% | -2% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 11% | -5% | +1% |
| No | 94% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 89% | +5% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 4% | -3% | +3% |
| No | 99% | Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024 | May 6, 2024 | 96% | +3% | -3% |
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
| Oman | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 6% | 5% | +1% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(21 hours from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Apr 06, 2024 10:05PM UTC
(23 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |