Forecasted Questions
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | +2% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | -2% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(11 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:11AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 11% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 90% | 89% | +1% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | May 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Aug 12, 2024 | 7% | +1% | +2% |
| No | 92% | May 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025 | Aug 12, 2024 | 93% | -1% | -2% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 55% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 45% | 45% | +0% | +1% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 97% | -2% | +6% |
| No | 5% | 3% | +2% | -6% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:37AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:37AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 8% | -2% | -24% |
| No | 94% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 92% | +2% | +24% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 70% | 51% | +19% | +4% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 3% | -3% | +2% |
| Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |