INFER Public

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between June 15 and August 15, 2020, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Aug 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2020 10:58PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.5%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.5% and 1.0%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.0% but less than or equal to 1.5%		Answer was correct
More than 1.5%		Answer was incorrect

Will Germany, France, Italy, or Spain announce any new restrictions on the use of Huawei equipment in their 5G networks by July 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2020 07:39PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2020 08:43PM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese government add Apple, Qualcomm, Cisco, or Boeing to its 'unreliable entities list' by August 10, 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 11, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 08, 2020 06:24AM UTC
(4 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will either China or the United States withdraw from their January 2020 trade truce by August 31, 2020?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2020 04:09PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2020 06:52AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. Justice Department file an antitrust lawsuit against Google by September 14, 2020?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 14, 2020 06:55AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2020 01:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 6,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000		Answer was correct
More than 12,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2020 05:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was incorrect
Between 3% and 5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7% but less than or equal to 9%		Answer was correct
More than 9%		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about facial recognition will have a negative framing between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 21, 2020 05:16PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30% and 40%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 40% but less than or equal to 50%		Answer was correct
More than 50% but less than or equal to 60%		Answer was incorrect
More than 60%		Answer was incorrect

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