Forecasted Questions
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +1% |
No | 99% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 97% | +2% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 2% | -1% | -2% |
No | 99% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 98% | +1% | +2% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 10% | -4% | -1% |
No | 94% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 90% | +4% | +1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 3% | -2% | +0% |
No | 99% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Jun 12, 2024 | 97% | +2% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
Qatar | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 6% | 5% | +1% | +0% |
Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2024 Q1 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
2024 Q2 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 96% | 95% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
May 12, 2024 11:10AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 12, 2024 to Nov 12, 2024 | Aug 12, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |