INFER Public

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 03:41PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	55%	-5%	+0%
No	50%	45%	+5%	+0%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 03:48PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:03PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	94%	95%	-1%	+2%
More than or equal to 3000	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:05PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	97%	96%	+1%	+1%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	2%	4%	-2%	-1%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:07PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024	Jun 5, 2024	18%	-13%	+1%
No	95%	May 5, 2024 to Nov 5, 2024	Jun 5, 2024	82%	+13%	-1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Aug 5, 2024	9%	-8%	-5%
No	99%	May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Aug 5, 2024	91%	+8%	+5%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	72%	80%	-8%	+0%
No	28%	20%	+8%	+0%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Jun 5, 2024	16%	-8%	-5%
No	92%	May 5, 2024 to May 5, 2025	Jun 5, 2024	84%	+8%	+5%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:09AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No	97%	96%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 12, 2024 11:09AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	12%	11%	+1%	+0%

JJMLP

About: