INFER Public

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 12:15AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 12:15AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 12:16AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	95%	95%	+0%	+11%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	5%	4%	+1%	-9%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	-1%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 07:15PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	Apr 11, 2024 to Oct 11, 2024	Jul 11, 2024	7%	+1%	-1%
No	92%	Apr 11, 2024 to Oct 11, 2024	Jul 11, 2024	93%	-1%	+1%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 06:52PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Apr 12, 2024 to May 12, 2024	May 12, 2024	6%	-2%	-3%
No	96%	Apr 12, 2024 to May 12, 2024	May 12, 2024	94%	+2%	+3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 07:32PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2024	May 12, 2024	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	Apr 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2024	May 12, 2024	97%	-2%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 06:02AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 06:02AM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	13%	-11%	-2%
No	98%	87%	+11%	+2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
Lithuania	2%	1%	+1%	-1%

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich

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