Forecasted Questions
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:09AM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 14, 2024 12:09AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 14, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 14, 2024 12:10AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +3% |
| No | 1% | 3% | -2% | -3% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 11% | -11% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 89% | +11% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
May 16, 2024 06:15PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 18, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
May 18, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(12 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024 | Jun 18, 2024 | 10% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024 | Jun 18, 2024 | 90% | +5% | +0% |