Forecasted Questions
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | +1% |
No | 98% | 96% | +2% | -1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | Jul 30, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 02:12AM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
No | 99% | 96% | +3% | +1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 75% | 55% | +20% | -1% |
No | 25% | 45% | -20% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:41AM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 03, 2024 05:41AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
No | 96% | 97% | -1% | +1% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(16 days ago)
May 03, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 18% | -17% | +2% |
No | 99% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 82% | +17% | -2% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 05:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 04, 2024 05:22PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 04, 2024 05:26PM UTC
(15 days ago)
May 04, 2024 05:26PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 2% | 8% | -6% | +0% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 4% | 11% | -7% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(12 days ago)
May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(12 days ago)
May 07, 2024 02:01AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | +0% |
No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +0% |