ansantillan

@ScottEastman Correct me if I'm wrong but I´ve seen reports that stated that only a billion dollars worth of materials would be available within the next hours that Biden signs the bill, with all the rest coming in the next weeks/months. In my opinion, this aid package is only intended for Ukraine to keep wearing out the Russian army (and maybe provoke another conscription) and, also, to keep the frontlines stable for a while longer. US elections are coming in HOT and I would expect that, as the event is closing up, the probability for more funding for Ukraine will likely decrease over time, even though the bill was bipartisan.

Also, a thing to consider is that Russia is shifting towards a war economy, is constantly pumping more money into the military complex, and is increasing the production of vehicles.

"Total defence spending has risen to an estimated 7.5% of Russia’s GDP, supply chains have been redesigned to secure many key inputs and evade sanctions, and factories producing ammunition, vehicles and equipment are running around the clock, often on mandatory 12-hour shifts with double overtime, in order to sustain the Russian war machine for the foreseeable future". 

"Putin claimed this month that 520,000 new jobs had been created in the military-industrial complex, which now employs an estimated 3.5 million Russians, or 2.5% of the population. Machinists and welders in Russian factories producing war equipment are now making more money than many white-collar managers and lawyers, according to a Moscow Times analysis of Russian labour data in November".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners

I will probably decrease the likelihood of Kharkiv depending on the time it takes the materials to reach Ukraine or the time that elapses, but, for the time being, I´ll likely stay where I'm at.