Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 07, 2024 02:02AM UTC
(12 days ago)
May 07, 2024 02:02AM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 100% | 96% | +4% | +1% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(11 days ago)
May 08, 2024 04:38PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 0% | 4% | -4% | -1% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 100% | 95% | +5% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 10, 2024 06:13PM UTC
(8 days ago)
May 10, 2024 06:13PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 90% | 52% | +38% | +17% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 3% | -3% | +1% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
May 11, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(7 days ago)
May 11, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2024 | Aug 11, 2024 | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | May 11, 2024 to Nov 11, 2024 | Aug 11, 2024 | 93% | +2% | +0% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(7 days ago)
May 11, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | May 11, 2024 to Jun 11, 2024 | Jun 11, 2024 | 7% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 96% | May 11, 2024 to Jun 11, 2024 | Jun 11, 2024 | 93% | +3% | -1% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 12:46AM UTC
(6 days ago)
May 13, 2024 12:46AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 95% | May 13, 2024 to Nov 13, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | 98% | -3% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 13, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 80% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 25% | 20% | +5% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 11:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 13, 2024 11:26PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 10% | -8% | +2% |
| No | 98% | 90% | +8% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 13, 2024 11:59PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 10% | 14% | -4% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 8% | -3% | +1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |