Overall people believe there is a tendency to grow based on demand and 28nm not being so difficult to fabricate. @Gandt (see below) provides perhaps the most comprehensive analysis so far
- @shaun-ee (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/21568) (as well as a few others, eg @cassandra) notices that 28nm are not that difficult to make, but will require massive investments. In any case, he notices, incentives are the right one for SMIC to scale 28nm production, and it may get easier to fabricate with general advancement of technology.
- @cafebedouin (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/21621) notices that if one uses the median, one should get 1% increase per year, but is adding 2% to account for government support. He also mentions specific fabrication plans. He quotes SMIC on "Ultimately, the company expects its sourcing issues to limit its annual growth to the “mid-to-high” single digits this year."
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22330) notices the increase in production, a new plant, but believes that the market is cyclic so it will drop by 2023. He also quotes some sources on the fact that it will take some time for fabrication to outpace imports.
- @btv (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22584) cites the base rate and perhaps quality for not raising the prediction numbers over the current ones.
- @Gandt has provided a really excellent analysis https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22982, where it takes into account the current expansions in Tianjin (not advanced chips) and Beijing (advanced and not-advanced chips), and projects that the growth starting from 2022 will be mostly due to the new plant in Shenzen, only producing advanced chips. Really worth reading in any case, and with abundant links.
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23009) points an article mentioning SMIC plans to build a new plant in Lingang in "two or three years down the line). There was also some conversation due to the cyclical nature of semiconductors.
- @PabloAMC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23275) mentions that Extreme Ultraviolet Litography seems notoriously hard to manage, so thinks it is unlikely Shanghai Microelectronic Equipment will be able to produce it.
SUMMARY OF FORECASTING COMMENTS:
Overall people believe there is a tendency to grow based on demand and 28nm not being so difficult to fabricate. @Gandt (see below) provides perhaps the most comprehensive analysis so far
- @shaun-ee (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/21568) (as well as a few others, eg @cassandra) notices that 28nm are not that difficult to make, but will require massive investments. In any case, he notices, incentives are the right one for SMIC to scale 28nm production, and it may get easier to fabricate with general advancement of technology.
- @cafebedouin (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/21621) notices that if one uses the median, one should get 1% increase per year, but is adding 2% to account for government support. He also mentions specific fabrication plans. He quotes SMIC on "Ultimately, the company expects its sourcing issues to limit its annual growth to the “mid-to-high” single digits this year."
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22330) notices the increase in production, a new plant, but believes that the market is cyclic so it will drop by 2023. He also quotes some sources on the fact that it will take some time for fabrication to outpace imports.
- @btv (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22584) cites the base rate and perhaps quality for not raising the prediction numbers over the current ones.
- @Gandt has provided a really excellent analysis https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/22982, where it takes into account the current expansions in Tianjin (not advanced chips) and Beijing (advanced and not-advanced chips), and projects that the growth starting from 2022 will be mostly due to the new plant in Shenzen, only producing advanced chips. Really worth reading in any case, and with abundant links.
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23009) points an article mentioning SMIC plans to build a new plant in Lingang in "two or three years down the line). There was also some conversation due to the cyclical nature of semiconductors.
- @PabloAMC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/23275) mentions that Extreme Ultraviolet Litography seems notoriously hard to manage, so thinks it is unlikely Shanghai Microelectronic Equipment will be able to produce it.
Up to 25th of November
- @Mauricio_B mentions a new SMIC plant being built: https://www.cityam.com/chinese-chip-making-giant-plans-new-8bn-plant-to-bolster-local-supply/
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/25514) explains a few details based on the local demand of chips from SMIC, global demand, and their own forecasts.
- @PabloAMC(https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/25785) cites some articles on the SMIC increase in production capabilities.
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/25879) cites an article on the normalization of chips demand by half next year.
- @DKC (https://www.cset-foretell.com/comments/27186) mentions SMIC having a good year.