no indications about this
0.033382
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 293 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 86 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 155 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 57 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-10%)
Yes
No more time to reach to reach this number.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
No news about it.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
No news about this agreement.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-89%)
Yes
This week, two major events related to Haiti have influenced the likelihood of President Henry remaining in office. Firstly, a delegation from Haiti visited Nairobi on a fact-finding mission to assess the readiness of Kenyan police for deployment to Haiti. This indicates a significant level of international cooperation and support, suggesting an 99% likelihood that Henry will continue as president. However, the second event, which introduces a 1% uncertainty, involves a request from the US Congress' Haiti Caucus to the Biden administration, urging them to withdraw support for President Henry. This request could potentially impact his position and international backing.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+50%)
Yes
Comment deleted on Dec 14, 2023 04:38PM UTC
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-49%)
Yes
Given that the holiday season for major airlines has already begun with Thanksgiving, it is unlikely that any significant announcements will be made before the end of the year.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
According to recent updates, it appears that the elections are now expected to take place in 2025.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Although IBM recently unveiled its Condor quantum processor, which boasts over 1,000 qubits, the company has only committed to making its smaller Heron processors, with 133 qubits, accessible to users through the cloud. This development suggests that the availability of the more advanced Condor processor by the end of the year is unlikely. https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/ibm-1000-qubit-processor
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