Yifan

Increasing the likelihood given the recent conflicts.

Iran’s decision to launch more than 300 missiles and drones in its first direct attack on Israeli soil earlier this month showed an appetite for risk that is putting a renewed focus on Tehran’s nuclear program and whether it will continue to refrain from developing a bomb.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-attack-on-israel-has-deepened-concerns-about-its-nuclear-program-b539a1ad

Following the crowd forecast and the new information, I increase the likelihood from 5% to 20%. Will keep updated. 

Netanyahu gains in polls when he attacks Iran Rafah and Hezbolah 

Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/benjamin-netanyahu/article-797952

passage of time; almost impossible given the remaining one month

currently 28, given the timeframe is only one month left.

updated following the crowd 

It is highly unlikely. Given Huawei's significant influence and market, the collaboration could have been announced a long time ago. There must be some unavoidable reason that cannot be solved in the short term. So the collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance would not be possible. 

This question is super interesting. I am going with half and half now and will update later when more information comes out.

Kharkiv seems to be by far the most probable target due to its proximity to Russia. The other two seem very unlikely to happen as a major ground offensive by the end of this year.

Kharkiv sits just 19 miles from the Russian border, and it is Ukraine's second-largest city. Kharkiv has been hit consistently and relentlessly since the Russian full-scale invasion over two years ago. 

Russian missile hits Odesa frequently. For example, it hitted educational institution, kills five in Ukraine's Odesa at the end of April. 

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-educational-institution-kills-two-ukraines-odesa-2024-04-29/