Following the crowd forecast and the new information, I increase the likelihood from 5% to 20%. Will keep updated.
Netanyahu gains in polls when he attacks Iran Rafah and Hezbolah
Source: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/benjamin-netanyahu/article-797952
Increasing the likelihood given the recent conflicts.
Iran’s decision to launch more than 300 missiles and drones in its first direct attack on Israeli soil earlier this month showed an appetite for risk that is putting a renewed focus on Tehran’s nuclear program and whether it will continue to refrain from developing a bomb.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-attack-on-israel-has-deepened-concerns-about-its-nuclear-program-b539a1ad