17th
Accuracy Rank

Yifan

About:
Show more

-0.056635

Relative Brier Score

116

Forecasts

4

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 41 347 116 520
Comments 0 1 9 2 27
Questions Forecasted 0 41 84 45 119
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 15 4 20
 Definitions
New Badge
Yifan
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Mar 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction

Super interesting question! As of March 21, 2024, the Habitable Worlds Catalog (HWC) lists up to 70 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets. In the following one year, I doubt whether another 5 more exoplanets can be found. Say 50% as my benchmark now

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New Prediction

According to the historical records, cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure do not seem a fresh thing in Iran... I bet it would very likely happen again. 

The recent attack on Iran's Railway Network is the latest in a series of cyber-attacks targeting Iran's government institutions, including its Railway Company. In July 2021, the hacker group Gonjeshk-e-Darande disrupted railway operations by infiltrating the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and forcing a switch to manual train management.

Source: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403246859#

Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
97%
No
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024

After the very recent U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution, Israel needs to think carefully about declaring a new war. Adjusting even lower for the 6-month time limit. 

Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
95%
No
Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

After the very recent U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution, Israel needs to think carefully about declaring a new war. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

War is war, characterized by uncertainty and unpredictibility 

Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
95%
No
Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

Very unlikely. Instead, the current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has decided to prepare for his succession by ensuring that his choice won’t be derailed by dissent within the ruling elite. Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/20/iran-khamenei-supreme-leader-strategy-middle-east/

Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
1% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
6% (0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
91% (0%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
3% (0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
97% (0%)
No
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Yifan
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15% (0%)
Yes
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
85% (0%)
No
Mar 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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