INFER Public

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	3%	+12%	+0%
No	85%	97%	-12%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	+0%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	4%	+6%	-1%
No	90%	96%	-6%	+1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	55%	-15%	-6%
No	60%	45%	+15%	+6%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	6%	5%	+1%	-10%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	91%	94%	-3%	+10%
More than or equal to 3000	3%	0%	+3%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:11PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	8%	-3%	+1%
No	95%	Mar 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025	Jun 30, 2024	92%	+3%	-1%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	82%	-12%	+5%
No	30%	18%	+12%	-5%

Yifan

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