57th
Accuracy Rank

lan

About:
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6.137755

Relative Brier Score

587

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 5 86 28 1064
Comments 0 0 7 3 17
Questions Forecasted 2 3 57 23 232
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 32 3 55
 Definitions
New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Less than or equal to 749
1% (-7%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
9% (-34%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
90% (+52%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0% (-10%)
More than or equal to 3000

Tens of thousands of Colombians have taken to the streets in several cities to protest against President Gustavo Petro’s social reform agenda. About 70,000 people demonstrated in Bogota on Sunday, according to estimates provided by the city government, according to the Aljazeera, April 22, 2024. Large rallies continue to take place in other cities across the country in opposition to Petro’s proposed economic and social reforms.

I think the number is on the high side.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/22/tens-of-thousands-protest-potential-reforms-in-colombia 


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New Badge
lan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
lan
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
0% (-5%)
2023 Q4
0% (-5%)
2024 Q1
0% (-10%)
2024 Q2

Confirming previous forecast.

Files
New Prediction

The House passed the military aid package today as predicted.  I am updating my forecast to reflect the latest news.

Files
New Prediction

“The House cleared a procedural hurdle to advance legislation to provide billions of dollars in stalled security funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on Friday, steering the measures closer toward passage this weekend. The House will vote on final passage Saturday afternoon, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked senators to be prepared to stay the weekend to vote on the measure. President Biden has said he will sign it into law.” According to CBS News, April 19, 2024.

Very likely that Congress will pass the military aid package supporting Ukraine before May 1st.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-rules-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-package/ 


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New Badge
lan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

I think time is running out. I don’t think they will pass this bill before May 1st. The Biden Administration is sending a package of $300 million in ammunitions and weapons to Ukraine. Clearly, this is to buy more time. 

Files
New Prediction
lan
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (+35%)
Less than or equal to 49
20% (-25%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
5% (-5%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (-5%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200

Adjust to re-affirm my previous answer.

Files
New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-5%)
Yes
100% (+5%)
No

Am adjusting to re-confirm my previous answer.

Files
New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
34% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
1% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
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