Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 06, 2024 07:20AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 06, 2024 07:20AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 13% | -1% | -19% |
| No | 88% | 87% | +1% | +19% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2024 03:34AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 07, 2024 03:34AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +2% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 14, 2024 07:19AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 14, 2024 07:19AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 56% | +4% | -2% |
| No | 40% | 44% | -4% | +2% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2024 06:53AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 18, 2024 06:53AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| Qatar | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 8% | 5% | +3% | -1% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 19, 2024 08:10AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 19, 2024 08:10AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024 | May 19, 2024 | 0% | +0% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 28, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +1% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 01, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 01, 2024 07:54PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 02, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +2% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 02, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 02, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 02, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 65% | 99% | -34% | +13% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 34% | 1% | +33% | -12% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |