Confirming previous forecast.
11.360617
Relative Brier Score
1064
Forecasts
55
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 2 | 5 | 86 | 28 | 1064 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Questions Forecasted | 2 | 3 | 57 | 23 | 232 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 55 |
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Active Forecaster
The House passed the military aid package today as predicted. I am updating my forecast to reflect the latest news.
“The House cleared a procedural hurdle to advance legislation to provide billions of dollars in stalled security funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on Friday, steering the measures closer toward passage this weekend. The House will vote on final passage Saturday afternoon, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked senators to be prepared to stay the weekend to vote on the measure. President Biden has said he will sign it into law.” According to CBS News, April 19, 2024.
Very likely that Congress will pass the military aid package supporting Ukraine before May 1st.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-rules-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-package/
Active Forecaster
I think time is running out. I don’t think they will pass this bill before May 1st. The Biden Administration is sending a package of $300 million in ammunitions and weapons to Ukraine. Clearly, this is to buy more time.
Adjust to re-affirm my previous answer.
Am adjusting to re-confirm my previous answer.
Tens of thousands of Colombians have taken to the streets in several cities to protest against President Gustavo Petro’s social reform agenda. About 70,000 people demonstrated in Bogota on Sunday, according to estimates provided by the city government, according to the Aljazeera, April 22, 2024. Large rallies continue to take place in other cities across the country in opposition to Petro’s proposed economic and social reforms.
I think the number is on the high side.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/22/tens-of-thousands-protest-potential-reforms-in-colombia