34th
Accuracy Rank

lan

About:
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0.113866

Relative Brier Score

26

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 5 87 26 1062
Comments 0 0 7 3 17
Questions Forecasted 1 3 58 22 232
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 1 33 3 55
 Definitions
New Prediction

The House passed the military aid package today as predicted.  I am updating my forecast to reflect the latest news.

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New Prediction

“The House cleared a procedural hurdle to advance legislation to provide billions of dollars in stalled security funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on Friday, steering the measures closer toward passage this weekend. The House will vote on final passage Saturday afternoon, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked senators to be prepared to stay the weekend to vote on the measure. President Biden has said he will sign it into law.” According to CBS News, April 19, 2024.

Very likely that Congress will pass the military aid package supporting Ukraine before May 1st.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-rules-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-package/ 


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New Badge
lan
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

I think time is running out. I don’t think they will pass this bill before May 1st. The Biden Administration is sending a package of $300 million in ammunitions and weapons to Ukraine. Clearly, this is to buy more time. 

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New Prediction
lan
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (+35%)
Less than or equal to 49
20% (-25%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
5% (-5%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (-5%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200

Adjust to re-affirm my previous answer.

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New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-5%)
Yes
100% (+5%)
No

Am adjusting to re-confirm my previous answer.

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New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65% (0%)
Less than or equal to 499
34% (0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
1% (0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
lan
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
40% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
45% (0%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
10% (0%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
5% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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Files
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