Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
8 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Apr 04, 2024 02:26PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Saudi Arabia | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
10 Forecasts
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:19PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 90% | 95% | -5% | +9% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 10% | 5% | +5% | -8% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
10 Forecasts
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:19PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 499 | 90% | 99% | -9% | +4% |
Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 10% | 1% | +9% | -3% |
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?
2 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 60% | 82% | -22% | -1% |
No | 40% | 18% | +22% | +1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
8 Forecasts
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
5 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024 | May 15, 2024 | 5% | -4% | +4% |
No | 99% | Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024 | May 15, 2024 | 95% | +4% | -4% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
5 Forecasts
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | +0% |
No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
3 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 15, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025 | Jul 15, 2024 | 14% | +1% | -2% |
No | 85% | Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025 | Jul 15, 2024 | 86% | -1% | +2% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
1 Forecast
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 19, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 15% | Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 | May 19, 2024 | 21% | -6% | -6% |
No | 85% | Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 | May 19, 2024 | 79% | +6% | +6% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
4 Forecasts
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Apr 25, 2024 04:51PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
No | 90% | 98% | -8% | +0% |