12th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:

I am Electrical Engineer with a Master in Computer Science and one in Economics and Finances. PM4R Professional, ISO 9001:2015 Lead Auditor, LEGO MINDSTORM EV3 Robots Specialist, IEEE Senior Member and active volunteer in many organizations. I work with the Monitoring of the National SDG Agenda and I am an active promoter of STEM Careers, More participation of Women in Engineering, Data Science and the role that Technology and Tech Professionals have in the Sustainable Development of our Communities and the design and implementation of Public Policies.
I do believe data can be and most be used for the Sustainable Development of our Communities and projects like FORETELL should be supported, promoted and replicated as much as possible in US and around the World.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.165548

Relative Brier Score

99

Forecasts

12

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 34 253 99 874
Comments 1 4 33 22 86
Questions Forecasted 13 30 53 35 175
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 2 20 12 44
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
aggaray made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024

So far, unfortunately i must keep my previous forecast

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
aggaray made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
aggaray made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99% (0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Still keeping my probability high considering the pressure around the globe and especially the one growing in universities in the US

Take a look to some news related to the topic: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111 

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
aggaray made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Updating my forecast considering a less likelihood for this rise of price 

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
aggaray made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (+10%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
80% (-10%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024

Updating and raising the probability considering latest developments

Files
New Prediction

Confirming my previous forecast...and emphasizing that commercial relationships are not created formally thinking in implications beyond the scope considered....meaning, changes in Political decisions not necessarilly are translated into bussiness decisions

Files
Files
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