71st
Accuracy Rank

BlancaElenaGG

2.495579

Relative Brier Score

44

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0

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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 9 9 95 24 401
Comments 0 0 7 1 25
Questions Forecasted 9 9 71 21 148
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 13 4 25
 Definitions
New Prediction

Dina's institutional strategy has allowed her to maintain power

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It was said that his state of health was delicate but the information could not be corroborated.

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BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
95%
No
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025

Ali Khamenei is a leader with a rigid belief system for this reason he will not be able to leave the position of supreme leader unless he dies.

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New Prediction

Given the information in this regard, the possibility of this happening is very low.

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BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
99%
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024

Israel would not have support from the United States, since Israel's incursions have shown that it has no specific objectives, which would increase civilian deaths and lead to a regional escalation of the conflict. Without support from the hegemon Israel will not do it.

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BlancaElenaGG
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
3%
Georgia
2%
Kazakhstan

There is very little chance of this happening: "From a political perspective, Moldova is just as lost to Russia as Ukraine. Last December, the EU decided to open accession negotiations with Moldova. The majority of Moldovans are pro-Europe, many hold Romanian — and therefore EU — passports, and hundreds of thousands work in EU countries.

Nevertheless, Moscow's hybrid war against the country shows it has not yet given up its claim on Moldova and would indeed attack it if the circumstances were right.

Pro-Russian parties, which are financed among others by the Israel-based pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, are waging bitter campaigns against President Sandu and the pro-Western government of Prime Minister Dorin Recean. Social media there are also awash with pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation.

A presidential election and a referendum on the country's accession to the EU are due to be held this fall. According to Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi, the authorities are ´already seeing attempts to destabilize the situation´ in the country." same for the rest countries:

https://dw.com/en/transnistria-will-russias-next-war-be-in-moldova/a-68418058

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New Prediction

I update due to deadline. No advance in this topic.

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I agree with  @PeterStamp, @cmeinel, almost no chance. 

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BlancaElenaGG
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Following Sunil Kumar:

"Does Huawei not believe in Open RAN? Or is it just playing poker with the O-RAN Alliance and policymakers? 


Huawei’s View on Open RAN:-

It stands to reason why Huawei, the world’s leading producer of network equipment, is not a member of the O-RAN Alliance. One theory is that Huawei doesn’t believe in Open RAN. Alternatively, it could be that Huawei is not a formal member of the O-RAN Alliance but stays involved through its largest customers, the three Chinese state-owned mobile operators China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Maybe Huawei is associated with another of the 44 Chinese members of the O-RAN Alliance true partnerships. In any event, it is a valuable thought experiment to explore why Huawei is not a member of the O-RAN Alliance.

This could mean:

Huawei, unlike its largest customers, China Mobile (950 million customers and 450,000 employees, China Telecom (336 million customers), and China Unicom (320 million customers), which are all members of the O-RAN Alliance, does not believe in Open RAN.

Huawei, unlike its largest European customers, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telefonica, and Orange, does not believe in Open RAN. Huawei, which has the largest R&D budget, doesn’t believe in Open RAN. Huawei, the world’s largest telecommunications infrastructure equipment manufacturer, does not believe in Open RAN. Moreover, none of its 60,000 engineers are working on Open RAN.

Huawei, unlike its competitors ZTE, Nokia, and Ericsson, which are members of the O-RAN Alliance, does not believe in Open RAN."

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ssunilkumar_does-huawei-not-believe-in-open-ran-or-is-activity-7124288751106670592-YcY6/?trk=public_profile_like_view


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