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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 23, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 77% 35%

What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% 10% 7%
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive 16% 23%
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% 25% 33%
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% 29% 21%
More than 8% 20% 16%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 06, 2021 07:49PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 07:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 9% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 20% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 35% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 25% 17%
More than 0.5 11% 4%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 08:02PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2022 09:03PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2022 11:54PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 31% 48%
Microsoft 22% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 18% 13%
Amazon 14% 10%
Tesla 7% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 5% 1%
Other 3% 2%

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 06, 2022 01:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2022 08:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 14% 5% 3%
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive 18% 12%
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% 31% 31%
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% 31% 40%
More than 20% 15% 14%
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