moving back to 50/50, waiting for the outcome in Rafah.
"Israel’s long-term interests are in Riyadh, not Rafah,”
0.350296
Relative Brier Score
156
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 49 | 577 | 156 | 2094 |
| Comments | 1 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 80 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 44 | 110 | 53 | 281 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 6 | 52 | 15 | 143 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-15%)
Yes
50%
(+15%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
2%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Moldova is definitively the most likely from the list as Russia is already interfering there.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/moldova-new-battleground-russias-war
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
0%
No
This is done
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
1%
Lithuania
This has already been considered and the offensive could be completed in 48 hours. However, this would be very unlikely unless the Russia-Ukraine is changed to a Russia-NATO conflict.
https://cepa.org/article/code-red-how-russia-conquers-the-baltics/
https://www.intellinews.com/ubn-russia-could-take-the-baltic-states-in-48-hours-317829/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Kharkiv
0%
Kyiv
1%
Odesa
starting, thinking about geographic proximity, so Kharkiv would be the most likely. According to Zelenskiy the offensive will as early as May, we will soon find out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(+6%)
Yes
88%
(-6%)
No
Tweaking
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025
92%
(-3%)
No
Apr 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025
Increasing slightly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
(+7%)
Yes
28%
(-7%)
No
Increasing slightly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(-10%)
Yes
35%
(+10%)
No
reducing slightly
Files
Why do you think you're right?
For the moment, this looks unlikely.
Russian are far from Kyiv, artillery cannot be used.
Russians have already attacked Kyiv with missiles/drones without reaching this level of injuries/casualties, especially since more air defense capabilities are on the way.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/27/us-to-provide-patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-as-part-of-6bn-defence-aid
Why might you be wrong?