Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 23, 2021 02:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 23, 2021 02:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80% | 35% | +45% | -3% |
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 18, 2021 07:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 18, 2021 07:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 25, 2021 05:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 25, 2021 05:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2021 03:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 27, 2021 03:55PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2021 09:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 27, 2021 09:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2021 06:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 28, 2021 06:39PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2021 01:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 27, 2021 01:08AM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2021 01:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 27, 2021 01:30AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 8% | 7% | +1% | +0% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 21% | 23% | -2% | +0% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 50% | 33% | +17% | +0% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 18% | 21% | -3% | -1% |
| More than 8% | 3% | 16% | -13% | +0% |
How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 05, 2021 06:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 05, 2021 06:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2021 01:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 01, 2021 01:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 9% | 14% | -5% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 38% | 31% | +7% | -1% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 38% | 33% | +5% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 12% | 17% | -5% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |