INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2023 11:14PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	8%	97%	-89%	+77%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	23%	3%	+20%	-17%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	31%	0%	+31%	-20%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	28%	0%	+28%	-20%
More than or equal to 2000	10%	0%	+10%	-20%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2023 11:26PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	4%	1%	+3%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	46%	0%	+46%	-35%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	24%	6%	+18%	-37%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	24%	92%	-68%	+76%
More than or equal to 3000	2%	0%	+2%	-3%

Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2023 11:34PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	0%	+35%	-8%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 12:03AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	26%	14%	+12%	-36%
No	74%	86%	-12%	+36%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 20, 2023 03:56PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	-2%
No	95%	99%	-4%	+2%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 20, 2023 03:59PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	5%	+5%	-13%
No	90%	95%	-5%	+13%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 07, 2023 04:51PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	4%	+4%	-3%
No	92%	96%	-4%	+3%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	79%	91%	-12%	+53%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	11%	9%	+2%	-38%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	6%	0%	+6%	-10%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	3%	0%	+3%	-4%
More than or equal to 200	1%	0%	+1%	-1%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2023 02:10PM UTC
(7 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	-1%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	3%	5%	-2%	-7%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 day from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2023 03:13PM UTC
(6 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	-5%

Mauricio_B

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