Forecasted Questions
Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2021 07:22AM UTC
(3 years ago)
May 26, 2021 07:22AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2021 10:44AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 17, 2021 10:44AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2021 08:10PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 25, 2021 08:10PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 5.5% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 12% | Answer was incorrect |
How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2021 08:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 25, 2021 08:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $13 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $25 billion | Answer was correct |
How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2021 08:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 25, 2021 08:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $40 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $100 billion | Answer was correct |
How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2021 08:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 25, 2021 08:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 70,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 130,000 | Answer was correct |
What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2021 08:38PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 25, 2021 08:38PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than $470 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than $680 billion | Answer was correct |
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 11:20AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 28, 2021 11:20AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | Answer was incorrect |
What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 01:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 28, 2021 01:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 0.45% | Answer was incorrect | |||
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive | Answer was correct | |||
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2% | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 1.2% | Answer was incorrect |
How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 01:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Jun 28, 2021 01:28PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 26,000 | Answer was correct | |||
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000 | Answer was incorrect | |||
More than 32,000 | Answer was incorrect |