Forecasted Questions
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:50AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2024 08:35AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 15, 2024 08:35AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 499 | 94% | 99% | -5% | +10% |
Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 6% | 1% | +5% | -10% |
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:51AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 15, 2024 08:36AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 75% | 55% | +20% | -6% |
No | 25% | 45% | -20% | +6% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
As of Apr 1, 2024 08:52AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 17, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Mar 17, 2024 to Sep 17, 2024 | Jun 17, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 08:54AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 18, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Mar 18, 2024 10:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 6% | 4% | +2% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 94% | 95% | -1% | +1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:02AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 20, 2024 08:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 8% | Mar 20, 2024 to Sep 20, 2024 | Jun 20, 2024 | 8% | +0% | +0% |
No | 92% | Mar 20, 2024 to Sep 20, 2024 | Jun 20, 2024 | 92% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:02AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 85% | 94% | -9% | +19% |
Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 15% | 5% | +10% | -16% |
Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -2% |
Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:03AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 25, 2024 01:49PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
No | 96% | 96% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
You quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:07AM and have no active forecasts.
You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts
25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 25, 2024 01:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 30% | 5% | +25% | -7% |
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 70% | 94% | -24% | +10% |
More than or equal to 3000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |