*
0.034853
Relative Brier Score
182
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 14 | 843 | 182 | 2109 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 20 | 7 | 140 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 12 | 57 | 22 | 131 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 82 | 13 | 185 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Columbus
quit this question on Apr 12, 2024 08:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(+9%)
Yes
Apr 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2024
90%
(-9%)
No
Apr 12, 2024 to Oct 12, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
That makes a ton of sense! Looking forward to your future projects!!Â
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Mar 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Columbus
quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:07AM
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
30%
(+20%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
70%
(-20%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Bin 3 is possible
Files
New Prediction
Columbus
quit this question on Apr 1, 2024 09:07AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Apr 25, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
*