johnnycaffeine

These odds have greatly gone down. I listened to a talk from CIS yesterday (here) which helped to clarify things. Basically Iran's position is stronger in the wake the Gaza war, and we know Iran and the US are talking through back channels. So this seems less likely now than it was.

My reasoning aligns with @Cloudwood here. From a purely business standpoint, Microsoft would be making a mistake if it cut itself off from some of the best brains in China. As the NYT article from the background puts it, they can just have the researchers in China do stuff that's not politically sensitive. So it then becomes a question of pressure from the US government. 

As far as I know this remains something Huawei will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into.

I missed the fact that they Crowd has gone up on this. Definitely agreed. With the fact that the Gaza war is almost certainly closer to the end than the beginning, plus the increased rivalry with Iran pushing Saudi Arabia closer to Israel over time, these odds are going up.