johnnycaffeine

The geopolitical reality is that it's going to be hard to Israel to do this without US support. 

Through today, on ACLED there's 41 fatalities of any kind in the the time period for El Salvador. With there only being a month left, it's a pretty safe bet that this resolves under 50. 

Certainly time to up the confidence level, given the numbers. In some sense the Maduro government has lucked out a bit, going into election season, with the country being calmer than it could have been. They would probably still lose, if it were a free and fair election, but maybe now they won't have to cheat as much. :)

I'll go up a little on the recent missile attack. From a historical standpoint,  I'm anchored somewhat on the 1991 scud attack on Israel from Iraq, which did not lead to any overt retaliations by Israel.