These odds have greatly gone down. I listened to a talk from CIS yesterday (here) which helped to clarify things. Basically Iran's position is stronger in the wake the Gaza war, and we know Iran and the US are talking through back channels. So this seems less likely now than it was.
-1.151334
Relative Brier Score
1048
Forecasts
428
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 3 | 18 | 539 | 126 | 1048 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 92 | 23 | 260 |
Questions Forecasted | 3 | 18 | 86 | 32 | 160 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 237 | 40 | 428 |
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Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
EA College Tournament,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-9%)
Yes
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
99%
(+9%)
No
May 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
My reasoning aligns with @Cloudwood here. From a purely business standpoint, Microsoft would be making a mistake if it cut itself off from some of the best brains in China. As the NYT article from the background puts it, they can just have the researchers in China do stuff that's not politically sensitive. So it then becomes a question of pressure from the US government.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
As far as I know this remains something Huawei will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
11%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+4%)
Yes
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
95%
(-4%)
No
May 9, 2024 to Nov 9, 2024
I missed the fact that they Crowd has gone up on this. Definitely agreed. With the fact that the Gaza war is almost certainly closer to the end than the beginning, plus the increased rivalry with Iran pushing Saudi Arabia closer to Israel over time, these odds are going up.
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Back down a bit here, based on some good points from @cmeinel and @ian