Forecasted Questions
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 02:44PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Apr 02, 2024 02:44PM UTC
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024 | May 2, 2024 | 18% | -14% | +6% |
| No | 96% | Apr 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2024 | May 2, 2024 | 82% | +14% | -6% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:45PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 90% | 91% | -1% | +6% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 9% | 9% | +0% | -4% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:47PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 8% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 93% | 92% | +1% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:48PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:51PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:51PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 96% | -1% | +1% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 09, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Apr 09, 2024 02:54PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 11% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 90% | Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024 | May 9, 2024 | 89% | +1% | +0% |