Confirmed previous forecast
2.777467
Relative Brier Score
133
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 55 | 705 | 167 | 1949 |
| Comments | 1 | 7 | 45 | 9 | 133 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 38 | 101 | 45 | 221 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 12 | 117 | 19 | 261 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-1%)
Yes
96%
(+1%)
No
Reducing due to time
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+15%)
Yes
25%
(-15%)
No
Increasing due to ongoing negotiations regarding a possible 40-day ceasefire between the parties in recent reports from the media.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/29/gaza-rafah-airstrikes-ceasefire-talks-hamas-israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Russia has lost a lot of materials in the war vs Ukraine, and although the Russian State has invested heavily in more military production, I would expect that the increased output of the plants and factories could be seen in several months, at the moment, I'm staying relatively low.