INFER Public

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.078312
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	0.002874
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	0.266191
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	0.057543
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.306944
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	-0.015617
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.036617
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.00783
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	-0.01596
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	-0.000197
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023?	0.000005
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	0.0
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	0.0
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC	Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?	0.00045
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	0.012562
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.017274
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?	-0.013556
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?	-0.02453
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	0.016132
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	-0.000211

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