Started Aug 17, 2021 11:40AM UTC   •   Closed Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC

How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?

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Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on publication and grant data from Dimensions. A publication is an AI publication if it would be categorized under the artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multi-agent systems, or robotics categories on arXiv, as determined by a CSET-developed classifier. "Highly cited" publications are those in the top 10 percent by citation count. A publication is a "U.S. publication" if any of its authors are affiliated with an institution based in the United States.

The percentage being forecasted is the number of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant as a percentage of the total number of highly cited U.S. AI publications. 


The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Final Crowd Forecast

Time Period Forecast
2021 5.34
2022 5.43
2023 5.35
2024 5.76
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