Started Aug 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC

How will the percentage of DoD subcontracts for scientific research and development services going to Northern California-based companies change over the next three years?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Data and resolution details. This question asks about the number of DoD subcontracts for scientific and technical development services to Northern California-based companies as a percentage of all DoD subcontracts for scientific and technical development services. The historical and forecasted values represent contracts over the previous 12 months. This question resolves based on data from Bloomberg Government available 90 days after the end of each forecast period. Bloomberg Government collates data from Sam.gov (formerly the Federal Procurement Data System). Subcontracts are for "scientific and technical development services" if they are categorized under NAICS 5417. A company is based in Northern California if the first three digits of its zip code are 940-961. 

The historical data point for 2021 H1 in the graph below is current only through mid-May 2021. It will be updated with complete data for 2021 H1 on approximately October 1, 2021. 

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Current Crowd Forecast

Time Period Forecast
2022 H1 5.06
2022 H2 5.11
2023 H1 5.14
2023 H2 5.18
2024 H1 5.2
2024 H2 5.2

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