Started Aug 26, 2021 07:15PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC

How will the combined annual dollar amount of DoD contracts with the "Big 5" tech companies change over the next three years?

This question is a metric for an issue campaign on the future of the DoD-Silicon Valley relationship. To learn more about this issue campaign and the relevance of this question, see the campaign's subpage and a related blog post. To learn more about our new rolling risk question formats, see this demo video or blog post.

Data and resolution details. This question includes prime and sub contracts between the Department of Defense and Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., Microsoft Inc., and their subsidiaries. It resolves based on data from Bloomberg Government available 90 days after the end of each forecast period. Bloomberg Government collates data from Sam.gov (formerly the Federal Procurement Data System).

The historical and forecasted values are a four-quarter rolling sum. Forecasting for each six-month period ends halfway through the period. The historical data displayed below will be updated with data through 2021 Q2 on approximately October 1, 2021. The four-quarter sum through 2021 Q1, not represented in the graph, is $878 million.

Note that data available from Bloomberg Government (and Sam.gov) capture only obligated amounts: the amount that is obligated or de-obligated in a transaction. To read more about the difficulty measuring DoD contracts with Silicon Valley, see Jack Poulson's "Reports of a Silicon Valley/Military Divide Have Been Greatly Exaggerated."

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The historical data underlying the graph is here.

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Current Crowd Forecast

Time Period Forecast
2021 H2 824.91
2022 H1 840.27
2022 H2 915.39
2023 H1 952.52
2023 H2 1001.58
2024 H1 1053.05

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